Today's USDCHF trading suggests that Smart Money is interested in the price increase. During the publication of the ISM data concerning the U.S. economy, we noticed large purchases. Initially, the release of worse-than-expected data caused a negative reaction (a price drop), but the bulls quickly defended the price and drove it significantly higher. The halt of a strong downward movement and the subsequent significant rise must be associated with large purchases.
Time Frame D1
The D1 chart for USDCHF shows that we experienced a breakthrough of a key resistance level, where the previous attempt to develop an upward movement was halted. The only obstacles in the price path are the 50 SMA, and then the recent highs. Tomorrow's data includes the Eurozone CPI (expected to show a slight decline in inflation) and JOLTS.
It seems that only really bad data for the dollar could reverse the price. Trading above the 200 SMA, a strong upward impulse breaking the last resistance, defending the price during the release of worse ISM data, and the upcoming Eurozone CPI publication with expected inflation decline are all factors at play.
Time Frame H1
On the hourly (H1) chart, we see that trading has moved above the 50 SMA. There have been several attempts to break through the average level, the latest being the release of worse-than-expected ISM data. This may indicate strong buying power and possibly an acceleration of the upward movement. Negation of this scenario seems likely only in the case of bad data from the U.S. market, particularly from the labor market.
Time Frame M15
On the M15 chart, we see the price increase accelerating. Three defenses at the level of the 200 SMA, the fourth already at the 50 SMA. If tomorrow's expectations regarding the Eurozone inflation decline are confirmed, EURUSD should fall, and the negatively correlated USDCHF should rise. On the D1 GBPUSD chart, there is a large shadow on today's session, and tomorrow's session should also be influenced by this supply. Thus, it seems that the coming days for USDCHF indicate an upward movement towards recent highs.
Economic Calendar
Key data that may impact the market are:
Tuesday: Eurozone CPI
Tuesday: JOLTS from the U.S.
Wednesday: ADP, Jobless Claims from the U.S.
Wednesday: S&P, ISM Services PMI from the U.S.
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
Friday: Non Farm Payrolls
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